"A hot winded pacifist" -Victoria Schell Wolf

Monday, August 17, 2009

Obama economics, an exchange




The following exchange begins with a forwarded allegory sent by my former spiritual mentor, Demitri. Its authorship is a mystery to me. Anyone with information regarding this issue is urged to contact me. There is no reward.

The Allegory (forwarded by Demitri:)

Shortly after class, an economics student approaches his economics professor and says, "I don't understand this stimulus bill. Can you explain it to me?"The professor replied, "I don't have any time to explain it at my office, but if you come over to my house on Saturday and help me with my weekend project, I'll be glad to explain it to you." The student agreed.At the agreed-upon time, the student showed up at the professor's house.

The professor stated that the weekend project involved his backyard pool.They both went out back to the pool, and the professor handed the student a bucket. Demonstrating with his own bucket, the professor said, "First, go over to the deep end, and fill your bucket with as much water as you can." The student did as he was instructed.The professor then continued, "Follow me over to the shallow end, and then dump all the water from your bucket into it." The student was naturally confused, but did as he was told.

The professor then explained they were going to do this many more times, and began walking back to the deep end of the pool.The confused student asked, "Excuse me, but why are we doing this?" The professor matter-of-factly stated that he was trying to make the shallow end much deeper.The student didn't think the economics professor was serious, but figured that he would find out the real story soon enough.

However, after the 6th trip between the shallow end and the deep end, the student began to become worried that his economics professor had gone mad. The student finally replied, "All we're doing is wasting valuable time and effort on unproductive pursuits. Even worse, when this process is all over, everything will be at the same level it was before, so all you'll really have accomplished is the appearance of doing something when all we did was the destruction of what could have been truly productive action!"

The professor put down his bucket and replied with a smile, "Congratulations. You now understand the stimulus bill."

and now, Demitri's comments:

Too bad our supposedly intelligent (HA HA HA) Fed Government hasn't a clue. (Or, perhaps they know full well the financial circus act they have assembled and pray we, the audience aren't smart enough to see through the smoke and mirrors).Maybe if they'd pay their taxes, things would be a little better?

Best to all, 'Demitri
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Dear Demitri,

Thank you for opening our eyes to your thought process. It is, as we've come to expect, marginally informed but ultimately adorable. But telling only half the joke does us all a disservice. Don't you remember what happened next? . . . .

. . . at which point the student, placed the bucket on the ground and thanked the professor, preparing to leave. "Where do you think you're going?" asked the Professor."Why my father needs his Porsche back. He has a corporate junket in Hilton Head Monday and needs the car to run some errands in preparation." stammered the young pledge."Well, I see. I'll try to have you out of here as quickly as I can. But", and here his face took on a grim appearance, "but first, you must help me with one more chore.""This will polish off my GPA!" thought the noble student to himself, "Why gee wiz, Professor. I'd be glad to help you out."

And with this the two grabbed their pails and walked past the cabana, over the tennis court, through the Serenity Garden toward the stables, where the professor kept a few of his older, yet prized horses. "You can hang the pail over there." motioning to a nail in the fencepost. "Then come over here, I'll need you to take this and put down my dog, Razor. She's gone off her head. I got her chained up in stall three."Holding a twelve guage in his right hand, the professor kept his eyes glued to his boots. "I've had her eight years, but she bit the census taker two days ago. Put him in the hospital. I just haven't the heart."

The student froze in his top-siders. "But you love ol' Razor,professor.""Take this and help me. Then you can get back to your father. Suppose he'll be needing to get his Calloway's back from the shop for his trip. Sooner you do it, sooner you can go. "The young scholar took the shotgun, paused to look one last time into the professor's eye's for permission to forget all this fuss. But there was no such approbation; just a strong sense of purpose masking the depth of his loss.Without a word, he sauntered through the stable doors and made his way past the numbered stalls, down the straw padded aisle, taking in the fresh, sweet smell of feed and manure.

Coming to stall three he sensed a calm overtake his anxiety. ". . .bit the census taker", he thought again, "I'm simply doing what needs to be done." Only then did he notice the roan muzzle of a horse, an old mare named Sunflower, poke out from stall three and nod. Looking inside the stall he saw that she was alone. He knew Sunflower from photos on the wall of the professors office back on campus. "Oh the ribbons you've won." he whispered to the horse. But he was not here to talk, he had a job to do. He raised the gun to his shoulder, took aim. Being a conscientious lad, he checked the stall number once more."Three. This is it."

Outside the professor kicked a small cloud of dust with the toe of his boot. Looking up at the cloudless sky, he knew it was the right thing to do. The shot scattered a large flock of starlings from the shade oak overhanging the run. "Guess I can get the Porsche back to Dad now." he thought to himself. "Bet I'll get an A+ in economics!"
- jeff
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Hi, Jeff,
Sad story, but a complete non-sequitor. I once had a horse and got 56 MPG. I must admit your exquisitely imprecise knowledge of Economics underwhelms.

Love, Demitri
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It was around this time that Constantine, my dear friend from a more hazardous period of my life; a breeder of Arabian show-stallions, art collector and olive oil merchant, wrote of his concern that my writing was too obscure for its purpose; "the blade of my sword was dull" to be exact. My reply:

Dear Constantine,

The allegory presented in Demitri's e-mail was perfectly on-target. My feeble attempt to use the same style to illustrate a collateral situation failed, in that I did not reach my reader(s) with equal directness, as evidenced in your letter and Demitri's misplaced defense. Pouring money into the "economy" could work if Barack found the right spout to pour it in. Banks and Investment organizations must play their role in the game, which by all accounts is not happening. A brief explanation might help. I am not a student of economics (as 'Mitri so correctly exposed), and any reliable information that supports or contradicts my read on the situation is appreciated:

The large financial institutions of the United States, since the '70's have tried to pull an economy out from the grip of "stagflation", or a lack of growth and job loss resulting from a fear of Americans to spend money, choosing to either save (which since the time of Ben Franklin, was the honorable, patriotic and possibly even the "Christian" thing to do) or invest. Remember, these were the days before E-Trade and online brokers. Trading was the sport of the fairly well to do or the Employee reinvesting his wages into the Company providing them. Wall Street, the Banks and Insurance companies were the playground of the big boys. Little of their wheeling and dealing was reaching Main street in a way that would stimulate a need compelling enough for the common worker to change his mind and choose a new car over trying to hold back a little more.

Why didn't the Big Boys activities make it to Main St.? Because the Federal regulations instituted during the latter half of the FDR administration, in accordance with the general theories of an exceptional Economist named John Maynard Keynes, required intrusive Federal "over-sight", an intrusion into the mechanism of great wealth, which inspired ingenious overseas investment and savings options before tending to the crops on Main St. Commercial Banks were restricted from playing at the tables of Investment Banking risk. The people’s money was now backed by the FDIC, and was not a place on a horse.

So, no spending, no trade. No trade, no manufacturing. No manufacturing, no jobs. No jobs, no money. No money, no investments or savings. Regulations stopped Banks from reaching their full, vile potential and the economy was, as a consequence, malnourished. Keynes was no longer the Messiah. So a murmur was heard from a wonderful little university in Chicago.

(The first time I ever read Thorsten Veblen, one of the founders of the Chicago School, the industrial economist who gave the world "conspicuous consumption", I was waiting for a bus up at Purchase, to meet the train down to Manhattan and eventually home for a visit. I read most of the book on the train. He kind of reminded me of HD Thoreau if he was an economist.)

Let's jump right to Milton Friedman, perhaps the most influential name of the bunch. "You want big biz to keep more of its money home? . . then "DE-Regulate. Hell, you and I know the government can't do anything right any way!"
So don't listen when all the liberals point the finger at the previous administration, as if GW had what it takes to create the mess all alone. Reagan had Stockman warning America about a "Trojan Horse"; that "trickle down" simply meant helping those who little needed it, (or Big Biz), hoping the crumbs would trickle down to Main St. For some time, that's exactly what happened. Crumbs reached Main St. in a trickle. Big Biz and the new wealthy class were making the books look fine however. GDP was plumped up with antiquated Cold War defense contracts and Silicon Valley while Wall Street was inventing Junk Bonds. Oh yes, the Big Boys were busy as ever, bringing their portfolios to lobby a Congress fresh from the failure of Keynes into the seductive arms of Uncle Milton.

Enter William Jefferson Clinton. Convinced that Wall Street could benefit from a fresh look at the European model of cooperation between Commercial and Investment banks, his administration vigorously supported an idea known to the history books as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which relaxed the Fed’s oversight and restrictions limiting the creative reach of these institutions. Why not let commercial banks work like investment banks and play around. Everybody stands to win as things are beginning to look up. Compared to Carter’s seventies, a glimmer of real economic success was beginning to glow, thanks to Reagan’s previous work to inspire a less progressive preoccupation with human rights and individuality and restore a uniformity of mind that valued personal wealth as the true metric of success. This can only bring in profits; profits are a stimulant and create jobs, right?

Deregulation was necessary, Bill Clinton recently disclosed in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, as it might take some pressure off publicly traded companies by reducing the consequences of failing to continually out-perform their previous quarter.

(Note: My personal experience working for a publicly traded company has left me with an acute case of “tin ear” syndrome at the common sense or “logic” behind these words. I watched an entire company rise and fall to the mantra: that standing in place, neither advancing nor retreating was, in the eyes of our Wall Street investors, effectively losing ground. Twenty-six dollar a share stock fell to penny stock in less than five years. It’s a tough world.)

How then, did the Republicans convince him to sell out? Well, much to the chagrin of many a militant liberal, Obama can’t blame the Republican Party for the mess he’s in. Bush is an asshole. Nobody save Ol’Barbara, (and I do mean “Ol’” Barbara) would deny that. But GW’s crimes do not include the sole responsibility of today’s economic meltdown. God I wish sometimes it did. Things would be much easier, much more tidy. But Democrats, thirty-eight of the ninety votes cast for the G-L-B Act, were Democrat. Names like Chuck Schumer, John Kerry, Chris Dodd, Dick Durban Tom Daschele and, get ready, Joe Biden himself, all voted to deregulate the rules and allow commercial banks to play the horses with your money and mine.

Alan Greenspan was amazing. Hired by Ronald “Ray-Guns” (ref: Country Joe, of CJ and the Fish, Woodstock, August 19, 1969), back in ’87, for nineteen years he tuned the market like a gifted NASCAR mechanic with Tiger Woods results, manipulating interest rates like they were octane. He was the Wayne Gretzky, the Joe Montana, the Michael Jordan of finance. The unimaginative GW Bush kept him on as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The world jumped when the man sneezed for God’s sake. He despised regulation, the bane of Fiscal Conservatives, Libertarians and Corporate America. Bush, being the puppet of these groups, checked with his “Spiritual Advisor” only after speaking with Greenspan. “De-Regulation is good for America.

“No Corporate Officer, with an Ounce of self-preservation, would NOT Self-Regulate. It would mean short term, personal gain and long term, corporate suicide!” Sounds fairly crazy today, but this is primarily Greenspan’s defense just three and a half months ago. Hope he’s over the pain and getting along with retirement by now.

It’s a matter of the country ignoring the complex issues of finance, trusting the behavior and subsequently the results of the men who not only determine the attitude of Big Business, but also own the note on their home. Not a wise dynamic; three hundred million vulnerable sheep, listening to the soothing instructions of the “Powers-that-Be”. This eliminates our responsibility when things go wrong, but not the consequences.

But he fucked up! Big Biz was too busy building palm-tree shaped islands in Dubai to fortify their tax-exempt mansions. This sounds insane even as I write it. Very successful American businessmen from the United States of America, who invested millions of dollars publishing stories about the damaging effects of migrant workers sending money from their meager paychecks to family members back in impoverished countries in Mexico, Central and South America were secretly squirreling cash into secret Cayman Island bank accounts at quantities dwarfing the distracting immigrant scandal. All this while simultaneously leveraging speculative mortgages at a compound they would not accept from Joe the Plumber. The great Bubble had to burst. GW was just too intellectually unfit to direct traffic around the accident site. The timing at least was forgiving. Lets get a Democrat in to represent a move forward.

So now, two months into the new administration, we throw lots and lots of money at the banks; solvency without accountability, without restored regulations. Someone, (and I hope that someone is H. Demitri Tinnitus), must explain to me how the Federal Government can award so much taxpayer money to Banks and still support Friedman’s call to let them regulate themselves; to accept taxpayer money, hundreds of billions of dollars I might add, on the promise that they change their business ethics and start lending to each other and Joe the Plumber in a spirit at least similar to that which defined the glory days. Spending, or rather Lending, is the key, the true stimulus.

Which is why Barak Obama’s support of a Stimulus package, drafted in the final days of the Bush Administration, attracts the sophomoric cynicism of a Conservative, Republican flock, incapable of individual analysis or thought, who want a Democrat to blame but can’t accept federal intervention. A stalemate would destroy our ability to stimulate the world-wide crisis. If America can’t walk without tripping over its own shoelaces, than how can China, Vietnam, Japan, Italy, Brazil, Mexico or any other nation be expected to maintain its own economy let alone promise a future of stable growth without sales to the largest consumer market in history? America no buy, Paraguay no can make. No can make = no can hire. . . and so on.

The allegory of the Professor and the student, Demitri’s original version, though tragically correct, ignores many of the peripheral conditions that I assumed were understood by most people. My sequel to the story was an attempt to reach those for whom these difficult times were not a tabloid event but a more complex situation. I apologize if I overestimated my audience, especially Demitri, whose trite remarks reduced the situation to another tired, partisan scrap. America is bleeding. Don’t expect me to just sit, self-medicated on the sidelines with Rush, and cheer for its failure. Let’s get a dialogue going about regulations and what we want this country to look like in ten years.
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Side note: Demitri, you missed my soul with your critique once again, because you still fail to raise your gun from my ankles up to the heart. Please stop carrying a squirrel gun in bear territory. Your position as my mentor gives you an unfair advantage. Please remind me, as I know only you can, why I should ignore the rebukes and not tease your posture of informed superiority?

- your always faithful protege'


© Jeff Thomas 2009

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